Smaller firms north of the border could be poised to bear the brunt of an expected slowdown in economic growth next year, the Scottish Chambers of Commerce fear.

The chambers' latest quarterly business survey, conducted by Strathclyde University's respected Fraser of Allander Institute and published today, reveals that smaller firms are concerned about future demand and trading conditions.

However, the survey paints a strong overall picture of the Scottish economy in the third quarter, with the chambers concluding that "there were few signs of any effects" yet from the recent global financial market turmoil which kicked off in earnest in August. Encouragingly, more firms reported a rise in orders and sales than suffered a decline in all sectors.

And the chambers caution that the results of their survey, together with more recent economic evidence, "suggest a slower rate of economic growth in 2008, and this, together with increased costs, is likely to lead to increased pressures on (profit) margins, and increased difficulties, especially for smaller firms and those more exposed to rising transport costs".

Touching on the Scottish National Party's election pledge to raise the growth rate north of the border to the UK-wide level, Scottish Chambers chief executive Liz Cameron said: "Over the course of this year so far, one of the recurring themes of our surveys has been the apparent contrasting fortunes of larger and smaller businesses. If the Scottish economy is to match the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rates of the UK as a whole and of key European competitors, then it is essential that businesses of all sizes are able to realise their potential.

"In this context, it is worrying that our survey has revealed concerns over future demand and trading conditions among smaller firms. These concerns are evident across a range of sectors, including the construction sector, where these may reflect continuing pessimism over public sector procurement opportunities among small contractors. More generally, in manufacturing, retail and construction, smaller firms report that raw material, transport costs and price increases continue to impact on expectations of profitability."

The Scottish Chambers survey, which attracted responses from nearly 300 companies, shows that national retailers' optimism continued to rise from already strong levels in the three months ending September.

In stark contrast, the confidence of independent shops shows an overall decline. While national retailers enjoyed a sharp rise in sales in the third quarter, their independent counterparts suffered an overall fall in the value of sales.

In terms of Scottish manufacturers' export orders, the chambers' survey is at odds with, and much more upbeat than, a Confederation of British Industry report last week.

According to the chambers, more large manufacturers in Scotland enjoyed a rise in export orders than suffered a fall in overseas business.

The CBI survey signalled last week that, in the three months to October, Scottish manufacturers suffered a decline in export orders. This was in stark contrast to the sharp rise in export order inflow recorded by the CBI in the preceding three months.

The chambers survey shows rising confidence in manufacturing and tourism, but optimism declined in the wholesale distribution and construction sectors. Retail suffered an overall decline in confidence, reflecting the worries of the independents.

Figures from the Scottish Government last week showed the economy north of the border expanded faster than the UK as a whole in the second quarter as the SNP was mounting an election campaign with its central aim of achieving catch-up.

However, although red-hot 0.9% expansion in the three months to June 30 represented the fastest quarterly growth in Scotland since 2003 and beat an advance of 0.8% UK-wide, comparison over longer time-frames indicated the problem of Scottish economic underperformance had not been solved fully yet.

John Swinney, Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth, chose to focus on the relative positions of Scotland and the UK when gross domestic product in the four quarters to June were compared with that in the preceding 12 months.

On this basis, Scottish growth of 2.3% trailed UK-wide expansion of 3.1%.